Discussion points on COVID have saturated the airwaves since March. Exploration in the 24 hour news cycle is akin to being inside Ground Hog Day. The basic topics centre around:
· Social Distancing
· Vaccines
· Testing
· Contact Tracing
· Social Inequities
The last item is intended to tug at your heartstrings, send you on a guilt trip, or make you feel victimized. Sorry about exposing the sociopath in me, but I don’t see any gains from exploiting what may best be described as political agendas. One camp is Death-by-COVID and the other is Death-by-Failed Economy. It serves the political class but does not work towards a sane COVID mitigation strategy. There will be a time, AFTER COVID is under control, when we MUST deal with those issues. For now, just deal with control mechanisms in practical items.
Regarding Social Distancing, we know what needs to happen but just ignore it or shame others, depending on your ilk. Vaccines are being worked on 24/7 in all major labs in the world, but it’s a time-consuming, painstaking, and boring exercise. Beware the snake oil salesmen. Testing is improving as we gain more knowledge about the virus. We need to understand that false negatives could be high with some tests (particularly the fast ones). As tests get better, we have to deal with what I believe to be the most significant item in the mitigation process, Contact Tracing.
In the nineties, my business partner modified a Chess program he wrote in the sixties to solve a shortest path in a road network. There were more precise algorithms, but the processing power at the time was limited. As more power became available, he implemented a traditional linear programming algorithm, with a fast memory-based solution calculating a path. Without boring you with details, the same methodology has since been implemented in “Graph” databases.
My first exposure to the concept of a graph database was its use by Homeland Security agencies for tracking terrorist cells. The system basically traced a call by a suspect and then traced every call made from numbers the suspect called, and the calls made from those numbers. You can see that it soon becomes the “Six Degrees of Separation from Kevin Bacon” game. If this seems too elaborate, just think of how Facebook and LinkedIn suggest friends or contacts. The technology is the same and with artificial Intelligence algorithms, the suggestions are highly targeted. This is exactly the contact tracing methodology needed for this pandemic. Are we willing to cede the authorities access to existing data platforms to get better COVID outcomes?
A slight privacy diversion. I was surprised when having a conversation with a friend about a particularly interesting product that my next browsing session on Google showed me ads with that product. I had not searched for that ever before, and the only explanation was an Amazon Echo in the room where I was having the conversation.
The technology does exist and the data to feed the algorithms exist. I suspect this solution has already been implemented in China, but they only expose red/green/amber alerts on phones. The data analyzed come from cell phones and any individual does not need to actively participate. In the West we shun this idea of ceding privacy rights. The individuals are supreme and their privacy must be protected. Sorry, but it already has been and masses of information about you are accessible by unscrupulous people. I suspect our spy agencies do the same but would never admit to it. Why wouldn’t you grant an agency the right to protect you from Death by COVID or Death by Failed Economy?
More sophisticated Contact Tracing strategies are the key to allowing businesses to open up and allowing the “controlled” spread to a less vulnerable population, yet have enough information to protect the at risk population. With increased and better testing, you still have delays with current tracing methods that do not accommodate a “Controlled” spread. It’s akin to Britain’s initial “Herd Immunity plan which was a dismal failure. Sweden, once thought to be a beacon of hope for “staying open”, is struggling with growing case-loads.
In summary, I propose that a government agency be permitted to harvest data from any available source, to track an individual’s movements in conjunction with test results. Personnel currently doing contact tracing could spend more time on the phones with contact and follow-up, as the analytical side of the equation will provide much higher quality data. The prediction would be shorter cycles in dealing with clusters and clearer picture of where we are at any given time.
Regarding privacy, you must accept that Elvis has left the building! Your ”private” information is already out there. Political parties have been harvesting cell phone information for quite some time. Rewards cards such as AirMiles have provided even more information for you to be targeted by both good and bad actors. Even when you are not part of a social network, your information is gained through associations with people who are. Get used to it, focus on COVID mitigation and dream about the return to normality.
