While sitting in on a political science lecture yesterday, the professor suggested to mostly second year students, that they are living through a 9/11 moment. Since 9/11 significantly altered thinking and feeling about security, it created a change in behavior and attitudes towards a more hawkish view of person-kind. We still had the concept of “enemy” but not easily identifiable. With a hidden enemy, it was easy to generalize and pick Islam as the enemy, but how do you pick out a Muslim by just looking at him. Easy, Middle-Eastern looking, or brown skinned was the simplest, even though it didn’t cover the whole group. Thus, phantom characters drove behavior and attitudes that are still prevalent almost two decades later.
COVID-19 is now the “enemy” and like in 9/11, there is no visibility other than a cute red ball with fuzz. The impact of this cute red ball does not go Kaboom yet it is doing what the perpetrators of 9/11 intended; hit at the heart of the economy. As beneficiaries of a thriving economy, it is easy to ignore all the other downsides of feeding the beast, as the beast only survives if it continues to grow. Will this change the way we look at the primacy of Economic Growth?
There have been several major events through history that have created paradigm shifts. Prior to 9/11 there was Pearl Harbour, WWI, or going back far enough Noah and family started anew after the flood! “After Event” actions will drive prognostications of future behavior. Using history and the impact of each event, we can play armchair quarterback and pick the good and bad plays(decisions). We are now coaches and we can call what needs to happen next. History will judge the actions of leadership, but what of the rest of us ordinary people? Will we change our attitude and behavior, and in what way?
My personal belief is that the major change ushered in will be World Health. Without returning to hunter gathering society, we will accept globalization as a reality. We will search for international cooperation like never before. The World Health Organization (WHO) as an institution will no longer be just that peripheral entity sending out alarms from time to time. WHO will then be given a much broader mandate to deploy bases that are equivalent to the Distant Early Warning (DEW) line. Sorry for the military analogy, but we do seem to react to the “War On… (fill in the blanks).
Since the US is the prime mover in world affairs, this will bring about a new attitude towards health care for all, even though Bernie Sanders may not be the flag bearer. If COVID-19 teaches nothing else, the lesson of “my neighbour’s health impacts mine” will certainly stand out. This will fundamentally change the whole health care debate south of the border.
The most significant impact though will be our views of the centrality of the economy. I know there will be a change, but the “what change” is murky. If the economy is impacted to the point of a Do-over, then all bets are off. However, the surviving economy will see new rules. Drastic measures like debt-forgiveness will be a reality, as repayment just cannot happen in many cases. The fragility of money will be come more apparent to a wider swath of society.
There will be many arguing the status-quo will be back, and come hell or high water, we’ll be back in churches by Easter. I tend to be more optimistic and maintain a belief that the Arc of History bends towards Justice(of the egalitarian kind). We can take more lessons from those who just want to help, and that may impact the bending of that arc.
